Regime
Market regime: trending bull, day 2. Fear & Greed 74. BTC $81,083.
BTC vs levels
BTC $81,270, daily ATR $2,504.
Nearest resistance $83,708 (daily pivot), 3.0% away, 1.0 ATR.
Nearest support $80,522 (daily pivot), 0.9% away, 0.3 ATR.
Lab modes
Swing ±20%/30d: pre-rally score 75.3 of 85, quiet.
Out-of-sample 2020→2026: precision 0.19 vs base 0.24, 23 lit days, median 30d after lit -3.8%.
Cycle ±30%/90d: pre-rally score 86.7 of 70, lit.
Out-of-sample 2020→2026: precision 0.39 vs base 0.36, 61 lit days, median 30d after lit +1.1%.
Cycle precursors burning: Active addresses z-score 90d:hi, ATR %:lo, Bollinger width:lo, Days above MA200:lo, Distance to 1y low:lo, Distance to nearest level:lo, DVOL:lo, Extreme greed streak:hi, and 27 more. Typical before a top 3, before a bottom 8; now 3 / 2.
Positioning
Funding across 706 perps: 9 crowded long, 23 crowded short. Most crowded long BNCUSDT (+7.6σ), FWDIUSDT (+7.3σ), LYTEUSDT (+4.0σ); most crowded short BMTUSDT (-9.1σ), LAUSDT (-9.0σ), ACEUSDT (-8.3σ).
Breadth: 78% of perps up on the day, BTC +4.2% in 24h.
Liquidations 24h: $56.4M ($50.5M longs, $5.8M shorts).
Oracle 1d
BTC 90% up, high conviction.
ETH 85% up, high conviction.
SOL 78% up, high conviction.
Oracle 1d hit rate 49% over 222,949 resolved forecasts, Brier 0.289. Not validated as an edge.
Method
Every number above comes from the lab: walk-forward by year, every year reported out-of-sample. Levels are all-time pivots, volume nodes and fibs. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Method and data: /btc-lab · /indicators · /oracle